Pages: (179-195 )
Abstract
This study examined the impact of the Russia–Ukraine War on Nigeria’s financial markets and macroeconomic performance, with particular emphasis on the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) and selected macroeconomic indicators. Although geographically distant, the conflict generated substantial global disruptions in energy, food, and financial markets, transmitting significant external shocks to emerging economies such as Nigeria. Adopting a quantitative and comparative research design, the study utilised monthly time-series data spanning 1990–2024 and applied event study analysis alongside Vector Autoregression (VAR), Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH), and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) techniques.
The results showed that there a significant deterioration in NGX performance during the war period relative to the pre-war period, accompanied by pronounced sectoral divergence. While oil and gas stocks recorded positive abnormal returns driven by elevated global crude oil prices, the banking and consumer goods sectors experienced significant negative abnormal returns. Macroeconomic findings further revealed heightened inflationary pressures, exchange rate depreciation, and rising unemployment during the war period, underscoring Nigeria’s vulnerability to externally induced shocks. Overall, the study provided Nigeria specific empirical evidence on how global geopolitical conflicts transmit to domestic financial markets and macroeconomic outcomes. Policy implications emphasised the need for economic diversification, exchange rate stabilization, enhanced food and energy security, and deeper financial market development to strengthen resilience against future geopolitical shocks.