Pages: (8-34 )
Abstract
This study aimed at developing a time-trend model of dog bite victims (DBVs), reviewing the rabies-exposure status of DBVs and estimating annual human rabies deaths (AHRDs) in Plateau State, Nigeria (PLSNG), 2011-2013. A retrospective cross-sectional study was performed using the 2011-2013 case records of DBVs in the State, obtained from the National Veterinary Research Institute, Vom, PLSNG. Time-trend model of the DBVs was developed and used to predict years 2014 and 2015 cases. A standardized clinical decision tree model was used to estimate AHRDs in the State from 2011 to 2013. In addition, addresses of DBVs were georeferenced on Google Earth, mapped using ArcGIS 10.1, and analyzed for space-time distribution patterns with the space-time permutation model on SaTScan 9.1. The trend of DBVs in PLSNG fitted the linear equation Xt = 18.624 – 0.245t. Forecasted DBVs decreased during 2014 and 2015 (82+23 SD). The estimated mean AHRDs from 2011 to 2013 was 40+10 SD per 100,000 human population. Two clusters of DBVs were identified. The principal cluster located at Rukuba town (9.9425o N, 8.7404o E) had a geographic radius and time frame of 0.42 km and 6 days, respectively. The secondary cluster located at Vom (9.737600° N, 8.813100°) had a geographic radius of 0.34 km and lasted 13 days. Human and animal health authorities in PLSNG can utilize these findings to allocate resources to stepwise actions geared towards the elimination of dog-transmitted human rabies deaths by 2030.
Keywords: Dog bite victims; Spatio-temporal analysis; Spatial cluster; Rabies; Nigeria,